There are still advantages to being an incumbent, and they were on full display last night as Governor Charlie Baker and Democratic challenger Jay Gonzalez debated for the first time on WBZ.
The advantages had little to do with the content of the debate, an informative back and forth between two nominees of substance. It was really an excellent debate that showed both nominees to be a credit to their party and Jon Keller to be a wise choice to host these conversations.
Rather, the advantage to the incumbent is the reality that more people in the Commonwealth likely watched the Red Sox beat the Yankees.
It’s been the gubernatorial challenger’s curse this fall.
Over the past month, local news has been dominated by the gas explosions in the Lawrence area, and national news has been hyper-focused on the Kavanaugh confirmation hearings.
It’s easy to forget that we’re in the midst of a statewide election.
Let’s just lay down the marker that it is difficult to unseat a Governor, but it is tough to do so with an economy humming along with 2.6 GDP growth from 2016-2017 (the best in New England and 11th best in the country according to WBUR) and an unemployment rate at 3.5%.
Even during difficult moments, incumbency brings name recognition, organizational support on the ground, and financial backing. When things are relatively good, incumbency is a force that is hard to get around.
It also brings attention when government springs into action.
What did voters see when the Merrimack Valley looked like a war zone? A Governor flanked by the Mayor of Lawrence, the two of them later giving a tour to the state’s incumbent Senators. Two different men of two different political parties. A Republican from the suburbs and a Democrat from the state’s most diverse cities.
It was not only an opportunity for citizens to see the bipartisanship they prefer but also a helpful reminder that Rivera had endorsed Baker this past summer, telling the Boston Globe, “I like that he’s no drama . . . And even though the governor is a Republican and I’m a Democrat, building trust with the electorate is incredibly important to be effective. I think the governor does that.”
That kind of quote from a liberal Democratic Mayor who was backed early in his first run by Elizabeth Warren is how GOP Governors in the Commonwealth get reelected.
The news cycle this past month has been brutal to challengers trying to gain attention.
Before Tuesday’s debate, the Governor’s Democratic opponent, Jay Gonzalez was struggling to gain traction. The latest WBUR polls show him to be widely unknown.
“Forty-five percent of those asked in the WBUR poll say they had never heard of Gonzalez. More than a third of the Democrats surveyed — 37 percent — claimed they hadn’t heard of Gonzalez either.”
People don’t know, in part because they don’t feel the need to know. When we’re not discomfited by something, we don’t shop around. People like Charlie Baker and they really are okay with balance in state government.
Citizens are complicated. We have policy preferences, and we have personal preferences. There are times when the two don’t match up, and we send confused messages that defy the simplistic comfort that politicians believe constitute popular mandates. It’s that complication that allows voters here to reelect Ronald Reagan in the same election they sent John Kerry to the Senate.
It’s the same thrust that will allow perfectly rational and reasonable voters to pull a lever for Charlie Baker this November while at the same time sending Elizabeth Warren back to Washington.
Are there issues Democrats can use to their advantage? Of course, and Gonzalez was an adept messenger on Tuesday discussing criminal justice reform, inequality, transportation, Baker’s endorsement of Geoff Diehl, and the State Police. And there are limits to Baker’s popular leadership. Voters may like Charlie Baker, but there were more than happy to disregard him by voting down two ballot initiatives important to him in 2016.
But if voters are furious enough at Baker to turn out a Governor who has been consistently popular from the start, it would have manifested itself by now. The reality, as much as they don’t like to hear it, is when Democrats ramp up their impressive GOTV operation this November, they’ll be turning out a lot of Charlie Baker voters.