Much has been made of the similarities between the two women running in Democratic primaries this year against the Bay State’s two longest-serving U.S. House members, but the differences between the challengers are actually more significant.
Both are benefiting from the surge of progressivism in the Democratic Party nationally as well as the anti-establishment fervor that has accompanied it. However, only one of these young women is actually a product of this progressive insurgency while the other is a well-established professional politician who, like the 20-year incumbent she is challenging, has a solid progressive policy record. Though the professional pol is struggling to integrate her establishment creds into her campaign pitch, it is these very creds that make her a genuine contender for Congress this year. The real outsider, on the other hand, will garner plenty of sympathetic attention but will almost certainly finish a distant second in her primary race.
What’s going on here?
Massachusetts politics is quite different from national politics, both in terms of elections and policymaking. Massachusetts voters are not nearly as susceptible to anti-establishment campaigning or disdainful of backroom deals between policymakers and interest groups as most of the rest of the country seems to be right now. Popular Boston City Councilor Ayanna Pressley has a real shot at defeating Michael Capuano because she can attract anti-establishment progressive voters and because her potential service in Washington does not threaten any significant established interests or norms. Pressley is able to check off several very useful boxes. Her race and gender are actually substantive qualifications in this race and she has the right experience and policy positions to effectively represent at least as wide an assortment of interests in the district as does her long-serving opponent. Pressley’s biggest hurdle is effectively distinguishing her candidacy from Capuano’s without scaring off moderate Democratic voters. If she clears this hurdle, she could win. If Pressley fails short it will be hard not to blame Capuano’s ability to lock up so many important and useful potential supporters and donors before Pressley’s campaign could establish her credibility. If Capuano holds on it will be by virtue of an effectively executed game plan and an effectively marshaled resource advantage. Capuano quickly exploited a number of long cultivated personal relationships in an effort to shore up the kind of advantage that his Western Mass colleague Richie Neal has over his primary opponent.
Springfield activist and attorney Tiharah Amatul-Wadud has never run for or held public office and her campaign is focused on exploiting anti-establishment sentiments among progressive voters. She is clearly hoping to replicate the feat of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, whose upset victory over a longtime congressional incumbent in a New York Democratic primary has catapulted her to progressive stardom. In style, if not content, however, Amatul-Wadud’s campaign is little more than a left-wing analog to right-wing anti-establishment candidacies that Neal has easily dispatched in the past. Massachusetts voters are too individualistic and not nearly ideological enough for purely anti-establishment or anti-politics candidacies. For most Bay State voters congressional seniority means increased influence to be wielded on behalf of the district. Over three decades, Congressman Neal has built and maintained very close and trusted relationships with a cross-section of the districts’ communities. To lose, he would have to be perceived to have betrayed well-established interests in the region AND his opponent would have to be perceived as someone who could and would correct said betrayals. Amatul-Wadud’s candidacy cannot divide Neal’s electoral coalition, and unlike Ayanna Pressley, she cannot credibly promise more effective representation in Washington to any significant part of it.
Two longtime Massachusetts U.S. House incumbents are being challenged by two impressive women of color whose candidacies were sparked by the ongoing progressive insurgency in the Democratic Party and who believe that this moment in American politics calls for new leadership with a fresh perspective. Other than that, the similarities being highlighted by the media between Pressley and Amatul-Wadud obscure more than they illuminate.
CORRECTION: An observant reader pointed out that Congressman McGovern, not Congressman Capuano, is second in seniority to Congressman Neal.
Rep. Jim McGovern is second in seniority (1996) behind Neal, in the Bay State U.S. House delegation, not Capuano.