Ayanna Pressley: Harbinger of Change to MA Democratic Party?

Both chambers of the Massachusetts legislature have been controlled by Democrats since 1959.  In Political Science, we find single party control makes it less likely that the party in charge expands its base and stable of candidates.  If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.  Here in the Commonwealth, this has meant an increasingly diverse state with a decidedly undiverse legislature.  Democratic party candidates remain disproportionately recruited and drawn from the same old circles – and these circles are overwhelmingly white and male.

Enter Ayanna Pressley.

I do not have a horse in the 7^th District primary.  But count me in as a fascinated observer.  In part, this is because Democrats can make intellectually honest arguments for each candidate.

For sitting Congressman Capuano, it is fair to say he has meaningfully advanced progressive causes and is a true policy wonk for the residents of his current district.  At root, this is the argument Mayor Marty Walsh, former Governor Deval Patrick, and former Representative Barney Frank have made in their endorsements of Capuano.  He’s doing the work, voicing concerns of his district, so wait your turn Pressley.   

Democrats who want new perspectives, and increasingly diverse perspectives, counter with Pressley’s “change can’t wait” motto.  Descriptive representation, where a legislative body looks like its constituents, is normatively appealing.  More importantly though, the research shows that descriptive representation begets substantive representation – when women of color, men of color, and white women enter the institution they bring issues too longer ignored to the policy fore.  They expand the policy agenda to better reflect the range of policy concerns of the whole of the district.  Councilor Wu and Attorney General Healey certainly understand this in their endorsements of Pressley.

Much has been made about how Democratic voters will reason through both of these realities.  But perhaps the most popular question in the Capuano camp is why go after a fellow progressive?

This question misses what could be the biggest effect of Pressley’s race:  major changes to the institution of the Massachusetts Democratic Party.

Regardless of who you are backing, if anyone, Pressley’s decision to fight the primary runs counter to the standard political playbook and most trends on who runs (and when) gleaned from Political Science.  Running against a party incumbent in a primary is incredibly rare – especially when that incumbent is untouched by scandal.  Mounting a challenge, so the logic goes, risks alienation from the party apparatus.  Political Siberia.  Because of how wealth and income are distributed, as well as persistent gendered domestic responsibilities, women, and especially women of color, are less apt to have access to the moneyed connections it takes to run for office.  And women still tend to run once they have attained thicker resumes than men and regularly require being asked to do so.

Pressley is countering almost all of this.  Bold.

And it is especially bold in Massachusetts where the Congressional delegation is all white with but three women.  The Massachusetts state legislature is similarly dismal in terms of diversity.  One needn’t be an astute student of Massachusetts history – especially Boston – to know that we have all too often been hostile to candidates of color.

So for Pressley to run against an incumbent is bold.  To do so as a women in a state that is, at best, middle of the pack for electing women is bold.  And to do so as a woman of color in a state that can still count on one hand how many women of color are in the state legislature is really bold.  All this without the backing of most Democratic powers that be?  BOLD.

On paper then, the odds seem stacked against Pressley and the  polls do show her behind — but within striking distance.  If Pressley pulls it off, despite the hurdles to her candidacy, then the gatekeeping power of a Massachusetts Democratic Party still so entrenched in old networks will shake.  Other candidates, more diverse candidates, are likely to give it a go.  If Pressley can beat a popular sitting Democratic Congressman, and by proxy the Democratic establishment backing him, expect a new Massachusetts Democratic party apparatus.

Long-term then the Pressley story isn’t so much the 7^th District – it’s that her victory would lessen the grip of the Democratic Party’s control on candidate selection.  Single party control has not produced diversity in representation in Massachusetts.  Pressley just might.