Charlie Baker is likely to win re-election this November, just like every elected Massachusetts governor who has sought re-election has in the last 34 years. Re-electing governors, regardless of party, is what Massachusetts voters do. However, Baker’s re-election isn’t a sure thing. There is a scenario wherein his chances could plummet. It’s a scenario that came into view as the returns from last week’s Democratic primaries came in.
If popular statewide officials and the longshot candidates who won Democratic primaries last week over powerful incumbents decided to put Charlie Baker in the cross hairs for the next two months, then Baker could indeed become the first Massachusetts governor since Ed King to be defeated in a re-election contest.
Modern Massachusetts governors of both parties have been easily re-elected in part because Democratic leaders on Beacon Hill have had no incentive to work against their re-elections. Republican legislators are too few to threaten Democratic governors and Democratic legislative leaders have routinely stood down (so to speak) when Republican governors have run for re-election because working with Republican occupants of the Corner Office has been quite productive for the leaders of the state’s veto-proof Democratic majority legislature and Bay State politics has long been an insider versus outsider, rather than a left versus right, affair. Simply put, Democratic office holders in Massachusetts don’t usually work to defeat GOP governors running for re-election because Beacon Hill insiders prefer second term Republican governors to first term Democratic governors.
However, Beacon Hill insiders took a pretty serious hit in last week’s Democratic primaries and there is unprecedented energy right now among progressive activists and voters in the state. If Ayanna Pressley, Maura Healy, Elizabeth Warren, along with the rest of the U.S. House and Senate delegation, and the newly emboldened progressive candidates for the state legislature decided to take advantage of their easy rides in November and to make taking out Charlie Baker the focus of their voter mobilization efforts, he would likely be toast.
If these folks coalesced around a strong and persistent anti-Trump, pro-diversity, progressive narrative aimed squarely at the only statewide Republican office holder, they could transform this race for governor by hijacking the conventional narrative of a gubernatorial re-election contest, which would be dominated by a focus on Baker’s competence, bipartisanship, and policy progress, and making it much more like the narrative of an open-seat gubernatorial contest where party and ideology get much more attention. The missing link for Democrats running against Republican governors has always been the mobilization energy and organization of the state’s Democratic office holders who, despite their own easy re-elections, usually stay out of the governor’s race. The anemic state of Jay Gonzalez’s fundraising and the deafening silence of powerful and popular Democrats about his candidacy suggest that barring the scenario I have outlined here, Gonzalez’s efforts will be in vain.
If newly emboldened Democratic officeholders do not invest significant political capital in the governor’s race, I think every progressive activist in the state should be asking every single one of them why, very loudly and very frequently. Taking out powerful Democrats on Beacon Hill and Capitol Hill is one thing, but if the progressive insurgents in Massachusetts are bringing new voters into play (as Ayanna Pressley surely did to beat Capuano so soundly) then defeating a GOP governor while Democratic Party insiders sit on their hands is a very achievable goal that, if accomplished, could create serious political culture shock on Beacon Hill and beyond.
The establishment-friendly, incumbency protection culture in Massachusetts politics is deeply ingrained, but with Trump in the White House and powerful incumbents already felled, Bay State progressives may have a unique opportunity right now to strike a blow against the “get along to go along” culture in state government and politics.