Less than 24-hours after explosions rocked the Merrimack Valley, Massachusetts residents are struggling to make sense of the tragic incident that resulted in more than 60 fires, at least 25 injuries, and one death. The months ahead will pose an innumerable number of challenges for the residents of Lawrence, Andover, and North Andover. From rebuilding homes to grappling with the mental trauma associated with an event of this magnitude, the road ahead will surely be a difficult one.
So what comes next? While it is impossible to predict how such a novel and multifaceted event will unfold, the political response to most hazard and disaster situations typically follows a similar trajectory. Merrimack is currently in the earliest stage of the disaster politics cycle. Over the course of the next 24 to 48 hours, the explosions will dominate the local news. If not for Hurricane Florence, Merrimack would have dominated parts of the national news as well.
Early coverage will focus on describing the event, including the number of injuries and deaths, damage estimates, as well as any stories relating to evacuation efforts. This phase in the hazard management cycle is marked by enormous uncertainty. Most observers are simply trying to make sense of what, exactly, happened.
As the investigation unfolds, this initial response phase will give way to a more detailed discussion about the actual cause of the disaster. The event will become increasingly politicized across time. Politicians, experts, and the media will move from simply describing the incident to assigning blame. This is an absolutely critical stage in the political cycle because it will determine whether the explosions trigger a policy response as well as the types of lessons policymakers derive from the event.
Based on my preliminary reading of the event, which, for obvious reasons, is incredibly murky at this time, I speculate the process of blame assignment will have one of three outcomes. First, investigators may conclude that the event was a freak accident that was neither preventable nor predictable. This scenario will not result in substantive policy change since the event will be seen as unavoidable. However, given the size and distinctiveness of this incident, this narrative seems highly unlikely.
Second, Columbia Gas may be deemed culpable for the explosion. In this scenario, consensus will emerge regarding the company’s negligence. Columbia Gas will receive the brunt of policymaker and media criticism. This narrative will result in a bevy of court cases and perhaps even a number of minor changes to how the state goes about regulating gas companies, but will not induce large-scale policy change. This is not to say that such an outcome would be inconsequential. At the very least, it will help victims begin to recoup some of their losses. It may also help break the National Grid lockout by underscoring the importance of having skilled workforce within the gas industry. However, it will not result in the types of policy learning that tend to improve community resilience and reduce the risk of future hazards.
Finally, the event may be construed as evidence of government failure. Put differently, the explosions could be framed as a preventable incident that falls within the direct purview of government responsibility. While it is hard to imagine what, exactly, this outcome might entail within the context of Merrimack, many disasters reveal flaws in existing infrastructure or lax government oversight. This narrative would result in substantial policy change, especially in an election year. Policymakers would move to adopt sweeping legislation that aims to remedy the flaws revealed by the explosions. The Merrimack event could catalyze change in other policy domains as well. For example, there is growing concern about the safety of bridges and other types of public infrastructure. Should this narrative stick, Merrimack would be a central topic throughout the general election cycle.
Whatever the outcome of the debate, it goes without saying that local, state, and national officials need to do everything in their power to ensure this never happens again. In the meantime, my thoughts go out to everyone impacted by this tragic event.