The ongoing spat between the two most progressive Democratic candidates for president is likely a pre-view of things to come. Bernie Sanders’ campaign playbook is not a “who dun it.” Everyone knows that he will rely on attacking his Democratic opponents with rhetoric that is virtually indistinguishable to that he levels at Republicans. Senator Warren should show off her capacity for tough and capable leadership now by leading Democrats away from Bernie’s cynical and counter-productive approach. The self-destructiveness of Bernie’s irrational disdain for mainstream Democrats is reflected in the rhetoric of his supporters. A recent Facebook post about the latest Warren-Sanders dust up by one of Bernie’s campaign volunteers included the following: “[t]his week was supposed to be about tooling on Joe Biden, who has tried to cut Medicare and Social Security for the past forty years.” In other words, Warren isn’t a real progressive because she distracted voters from Bernie’s effort to smear and discredit the center-left Democratic front-runner.
Of course, Joe Biden has not tried to cut Medicare and Social Security for the past forty years, but that won’t stop Sanders & Co from claiming he has over and over and over again. Anyone who quibbles with this entirely unfair claim will simply be smeared. Counter-argument is not in the revolutionary’s arsenal. Political revolutionaries don’t worry about inconvenient truths getting in the way of mobilizing their foot soldiers. The problem, as we saw in 2016, is that when the Democratic nominee is one of those trashed by Bernie’s shock troops, the Trump campaign, the GOP, and the Russians are all too happy to use the Bernie Bros’ hyperbolic “Bernie or bust” rhetoric to reduce Democratic enthusiasm and turnout in November.
The overwhelming weight of the evidence points to the dangers of Democrats nominating a progressive “movement” candidate and to the wisdom of picking a nominee capable of assembling a broad center-left electoral coalition. Bill Schneider makes this case very forcefully and well here. Political scientists Sean McElwee and Brian Schaffner here that, based on their behavior in 2018, even Obama voters who stayed at home or voted for Trump in 2016 can be turned out by Democrats in 2020 if they focus on the “bread and butter issues” of gun control, healthcare, and the environment, and avoid divisive culture war issues. There is virtual consensus among political scientists who study elections that Democrats should push popular policy proposals and avoid unpopular ones, which means they should build a broad coalition, not fight Trumpian fire with Trumpian fire. Controversial New York Times Columnist Brad Steven recently laid out the best case for Bernie, which Sanders supporters gleefully spread on social media, though I don’t think they read it very carefully. Stephens correctly argues that Bernie’s electoral strength in 2020 is very much like Trump’s was in 2016, mainly that his willingness to employ any means and his cult-like following make him uniquely qualified to out-Trump Trump. What Stephens fails to mention, however, is that Bernie’s brand of demagoguery actually helped Trump in 2016 and attracts a much smaller segment of the American electorate than Trump’s brand.
Bernie Sanders cannot help Democrats built a broad center-left coalition because his supporters prize above all else his unwillingness to moderate his message or compromise with The Establishment.” It is what separates him from the “politicians.” Bernie is as much a captive as a leader of his movement. If Sanders is the nominee, issues that complicate Democrats chances up and down the ballot, like immigration reform and racial and gender discrimination, will be distorted and emphasized by Republicans in order to scare off average voters from the Democrats and Sanders supporters will be hard pressed to provide centrist Democrats and independent voters with much reason not to be scared off.
Long story short, Bernie Sanders’ political revolution and revolutionary shock troops are going to go all in on a “Bernie or Bust” strategy in 2020 just as they did in 2016. Counting on them to be team players this time is a sucker’s bet. If Democrats treat Bernie with kid gloves for too long in 2020 (as they did in 2016) he will increase Donald Trump’s chances of winning the election (as he did in 2016) whether or not he is the nominee.
So, why am I putting the burden on Warren? Shouldn’t every other Democratic contender start speaking truth to Bernie & Co.?
While all the other candidates should call out Sanders, Senator Warren is best positioned to break the bad news to Bernie’s supporters because her progressive bonafides are the least easy to distort or dismiss, and the sooner she does this the easier it will be to thwart Bernie’s eventual smear campaign against her. Senator Warren is offering progressives a commitment to their values and policy goals that does not alienate mainstream Democratic or independent voters. The existential threat of a second Trump term, Warren’s clear progressive values and plans, as well as the opportunity to win swing voters make Elizabeth Warren indisputably the most rational candidate for progressive voters. Any progressive voter who actually believes that there wasn’t enough difference between Trump and Clinton to justify voting for Clinton is not someone worth the expense of mobilizing. Any progressive voter who thinks the same thing about Trump and Warren shouldn’t be allowed near sharp objects or to operate heavy machinery.