#MaPoli Endorsements: the definitive list

Forget silly season or the dog days of August.  With just over a month before our primary election and a few months before the general election, campaigns and candidates are in the midst of Endorsement Season.

Every election year in Massachusetts, I re-up my piece on political endorsements in the Commonwealth.  Note that the categories below are not mutually exclusive.  Sometimes a Small Circle of Friends is also A Perfect Storm.  Maura Healey’s endorsement of Ayanna Pressley during the last cycle was both.  Herewith, the #Mapoli endorsement hierarchy in order of importance:

The Perfect Storm Endorsement: For Democrats, this comes in the form of people like Senator Elizabeth Warren, Attorney General Maura Healey, and former Governor Deval Patrick.   They bring a tested and successful grassroots organization and can put their national fundraising network on alert.   Whether it’s genuinely perfect or stormier will be tested this year.

Healey and Patrick have not fully ventured into the contentious US Senate primary between incumbent Ed Markey and challenger Joe Kennedy.  Healey did weigh in last time around with a key endorsement of then-challenger Ayanna Pressley in 2018.  Warren has endorsed Markey but over the next few weeks we’ll see if it she’s pursuing more of a Silent Cal strategy (See below) or the Perfect Storm.

Republicans in Massachusetts don’t have a good version of this.  Governor Baker is widely popular and can help local Republicans build support.  But he’s more popular among Democrats and independents than he is among the small but vocal Republican base.  His own party organization often actively works against him.  And the race for the US Senate nomination on the GOP side doesn’t merit much involvement.  Former Senator Scott Brown decamped to NH then to New Zealand.  Former Governor Mitt Romney moved to Utah and former Governor Bill Weld headed to the evil empire before moving back, and moving into, the Libertarian party, before challenging President Trump for renomination.

There just aren’t enough well-known and well-organized Republicans to create a Perfect Storm.

The Boston Globe’s endorsement of Weld over John Silber in 1990 fits here.  The editorial in support of Weld helped him capture the liberal vote, and the Corner Office, that year by a slim margin.  The Globe’s endorsement of Markey might fit here.  It’s endorsement of Jake Auchincloss in the 4^th District doesn’t.

The Boston Mayoral Endorsement in two parts

1. The Curley Gets it Done Endorsement: The Boston Mayor wields great power in the city and statewide.  A meaningful endorsement by the state’s most prominent urban politician can greatly assist anyone from the statewide candidate to a ward politician.  If the Mayor makes it clear he takes the endorsement personally, money and muscle can follow.
2. The “I’m with the Democrat” Endorsement: This is when the Boston Mayor endorses a candidate, but essentially tells supporters, don’t get worked up over this. It’s the equivalent of endorsing with your mouth while crossing your fingers behind your back.  Mayor Tom Menino’s “endorsement” of Scott Harshbarger in 1998 is a good example.

Sometimes Curley doesn’t get it done, however.  Mayor Marty Walsh put his name behind Warren Tolman in the latter’s race for Attorney General, and it mattered not at all as Tolman lost to Maura Healey.    Walsh and Healey were on opposite sides in the 7^th District primary.  Walsh tried to get it done on behalf of Capuano while sticking with the “I’m with the Democrat” for his party’s gubernatorial nominee, Jay Gonzalez.

Delivering Cushman’s Bread (Ask Prof. Cunningham) Endorsement: Two factors: when a candidate is endorsed by those identified with an active constituency and when the endorser is willing to roll up the sleeves and go to work for the newly supported.  Think John Barros, Felix Arroyo, and Charlotte Golar Richie endorsing Marty Walsh during his first mayoral race or popular Haverhill Mayor James Fiorentini backing Dan Kohn in the crowded 3^rd congressional district primary.  The range of Mayors supporting Ed Markey can deliver Cushman’s Bread.  Jane Fonda?  Not so much.

Strong, local union organizations can fill this role.

The Silent Cal: sometimes “Silence is golden, but my eyes still see.”  Two leading Democrats, Elizabeth Warren and Ed Markey, were silent in the Capuano-Pressley race.  Warren’s office told the Globe the were staying out of primary endorsements, a shift from previous years when the senior Senator endorsed John Tierney over Seth Moulton and Lawrence Mayor Dan Rivera over former Mayor Willie Lantigua.

The best example of the Silent Cal is from succeeding Senators in Plymouth, former Democratic Senate President Therese Murray and Republican Senator Vinny DeMacedo.  Murray faced a stiff challenge for reelection in 2010 and 2012 by Sandwich Republican Tom Keyes.  She narrowly won in 2010.  The Republican campaign was aggressive and often ugly.  Conspicuous for his silence was DeMacedo who did not endorse Keyes.  Had he done so and taken to the campaign trail, Murray might have lost.

Fast forward to 2014.  Murray was leaving the Senate, and DeMacedo was hoping to succeed her, but he first needed to defeat Democratic former state representative Matt Patrick.  Conspicuous for her silence was Murray who did not actively campaign for Patrick.  DeMacedo won.

The Blessing of the Fleet:  Ted Kennedy in his oral history, provided this gem: “That story I told you about the advice President Kennedy gave me down at Hyannis Port at Cape Cod on a late morning was I was going up to attend an outdoor Mass with Cardinal Cushing at the novitiate of St. Stanislaus in Lenox, Massachusetts. And when the novices came up to kiss his ring, he said, Don’t kiss me, kiss Kennedy. I talked at a lot of communion breakfasts afterwards, but that probably was as good an endorsement as I got during the course of the campaign.”

Endorsements from out-of-state (places well beyond Rt. 128):  These can be useful in primary fights as endorsements from places well beyond the Bay State tend to be better known among die-hard partisans.

The 2018 Republican US Senate candidate Geoff Diehl had endorsements from Newt Gingrich, Sean Spicer, and New Hampshire state representative Al Baldasaro (he who called for Hillary Clinton to be shot by a firing squad for treason). They helped Diehl overcome his two rivals so he could lose to Elizabeth Warren.

Ed Markey has secured endorsements from AOC and other national leaders (quite frankly, as they’re not AOC, the matter far, far less).  It will help in one month.

The Hail Flutie: Celebrities are only useful if they are adored by the locals.  Doug Flutie and Steve Sweeney came out in favor of Scott Brown in 2010.  But celebrities often can’t carry Cushman’s bread and the glitz that surrounds them may count for little on the ground.

 The “You’ll get yours” Endorsement: There is a reason why folks in Worcester, loyal to former Lieutenant Governor Tim Murray, did not support either of the two front-runners for the Democratic nomination in 2014.

When former Governor Mitt Romney first ran for President in 2008, his predecessor, who he had nudged out of the gubernatorial race of 2002, Jane Swift, went all in on behalf of John McCain.  Likewise, Plymouth County Sheriff Joseph D. McDonald Jr., who noted that during the four years of the Romney administration, the Governor met with him exactly once.  Former Governor Paul Cellucci, one of Swift’s mentors, went with Rudy Giuliani before backing McCain.

A Small Circle of Friends: These are the obligatory endorsements that allies and friends give each other: Peter Koutoujian, Steve Grossman, and Tom O’Neill endorsing Jimmy Tingle during his run for Lieutenant Governor or Marty Walsh endorsing his former chief of staff, Dan Koh.  Congressman Katherine Clark returned the favor of an early endorsement on Martha Coakley as did Maura Healey endorsing one of her early endorsers, Ayanna Pressley.   Pressley has weighed in this cycle on behalf of Jesse Mermell in the 4th District.  Unions stand with their loyal supporters and whole generations of politicos cut their teeth in the patronage politics that fueled city machines.

Sometimes, this small circle has important repercussions.  Incumbent Senator John F. Kennedy faced off against Republican attorney Vincent Celeste in 1958; the same year Democrat Foster Furcolo was running for reelection.  Furcolo had never forgiven Kennedy for refusing to endorse him in his 1954 Senate race against incumbent Republican Leverett Saltonstall.  Concerned for the Italian vote in 1958, Kennedy had Rhode Island Senator John Pastore record a televised endorsement of JFK.

At other times, the small circle of local patronage politics becomes too small.  Boston City Councilor Dapper O’Neil lost the endorsement of Mayor Ray Flynn as he ran for the Democratic nomination for Suffolk County Sheriff for the third time in 1986 (“He’ll start paying tomorrow,” Dapper said of Flynn the night of his loss.)  By 1999, Dapper had lost the support of his most ardent backers in the labor unions and came up short for the first time in 28 years on the council.  After O’Neil’s loss, historian Thomas H. O’Connor was interviewed in the Boston Globe: “Sometimes outsiders say, `How did he last so long?’ ” O’Connor said. “It was largely through these kinds of loyalties he built up over 30 years, from people for whom he’d done favors, and they’d never forget him, and they’d talk about him to their relatives. He built a political career on a system of local patronage.”

The Buckner:  Governor Paul Cellucci backed Jack E. Robinson in 2000 then rescinded the endorsement.  Senator Warren supported John Tierney in 2014.  The entire state Democratic party apparatus and its leading lights trekked up to New Hampshire every week backing Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary in 2016 then trumpeted her candidacy all around the Commonwealth.  She lost the former and just barely squeaked by in the latter.  Similarly, every Democrat of stature worked to elect Chalifoux Zephir to fill a Worcester and Middlesex Senate seat left vacant by Democrat Jennifer Flanagan in 2018.  The result?  Republican Dean Tran flipped the seat.  There are a few brewing Buckners in the primary race in the 1st congressional district right now.

You don’t have the votes. In 1963, Representative Michael Paul Feeney of Hyde Park had two heavy hitters in his corner as he challenged controversial Speaker of the House John Thompson: newly elected Governor Endicott Peabody and newly elected Senator Ted Kennedy.  But Johnson had the votes and Paul, Peabody, and Kennedy did not. He was reelected Speaker.

Endorsements that seem to provide a boost but can’t deliver are useless.  You might as well seek the endorsement of the chair of the select Boards of Dana, Enfield, and Prescott.

The Friends of Eddie Coyle: This is the endorsement that can kill you politically.

Think Elliot Richardson in 1984.  The Massachusetts Republican party was turning more and more conservative.  Into the unexpected 1984 race for US Senate (incumbent Democrat Paul Tsongas pulled out of his reelection due to health issues) landed Elliot Richardson, a certifiable Golden Child of GOP politics, but from an earlier era.  As Richardson began to demonstrate real weakness on the campaign trail and conservative upstart Ray Shamie provided real strength, former moderate Republican President Gerald Ford endorsed Richardson.  Nobody who could recall the Ford-Reagan split in the GOP could have mistaken the cue.   Shamie overwhelmed Richardson on primary day.