On Valentine’s Day the Boston Herald pushed the “great replacement theory,” relying on an unreliable “report” from the Pioneer Institute and a defective “poll” commissioned by the dark money Mass Opportunity Alliance.
The story was “Massachusetts economy crashes as state loses domestic residents, gains migrants: report” by Lance Reynolds. The lede was “A Boston-based think tank says the economy is crashing as the Massachusetts population records ‘historically high’ gains in ‘low-skilled migrants, many lacking legal status’ while residents flee.’”
Let’s begin with a fundamental matter that should cause you to distrust any report from the Herald and reporter Reynolds: the Pioneer report does not say that “the economy is crashing.”
If you keep clicking on Reynolds’ links you eventually arrive at a Pioneer policy brief, riven with unsubstantiated pronouncements by an unqualified analyst, that does say “The true economic health of Massachusetts remains deeply at risk” but that fanciful assertion itself is grounded in great replacement theory.
Professor Rodney Coates explains great replacement theory in The Conversation, What is the ‘great replacement theory’? A scholar of race relations explains. Here are a couple of relevant excerpts:
The “great replacement theory,” whose origins date back to the late 19th century, argues that Jews and some Western elites are conspiring to replace white Americans and Europeans with people of non-European descent, particularly Asians and Africans. . . .
On Aug. 11, 2017, during a “Unite the Right” rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, white nationalists chanted “You will not replace us” and “Jews will not replace us.”
I checked with Professor Coates who confirmed that the Herald story is an example of great replacement theory.
The Sourcewatch project of Center for Media and Democracy describes Pioneer as
a right-wing pressure group headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts, that describes itself as a “think tank” . . .
The Pioneer Institute is a member of the State Policy Network (SPN). SPN is a web of right-wing “think tanks” and tax-exempt organizations in 48 states, Washington, D.C., Puerto Rico, and the United Kingdom. . . SPN and its member think tanks are major drivers of the right-wing, American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC)-backed corporate agenda in state houses nationwide, with deep ties to the Koch brothers and the national right-wing network of funders.
Pioneer funders have included such far-right oligarchs as the David H. Koch Foundation, Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation, Walton Family Foundation, and Koch affiliated dark money conduits Donors Trust and Donors Capital.
Reynolds’ Herald story relies on a Pioneer catch page link that leads to a two-page newsletter which links to a one pager from the Pioneer editorial staff where you can click on a Read the Brief button that takes you to a five and a half page “policy brief.”
As the Herald story says, Pioneer is setting itself up against the views of Healey administration Secretary of Economic Development Yvonne Hao and the UMass Donahue Institute. Donahue issued its own report on the Census Bureau migration data. Pioneer claims to offer a “more nuanced look at the data, including how a change in the Census Bureau’s methodology significantly impacted their 2020–2024 estimates.”
Whereas the secretary of economic development and the UMass Donahue Institute researchers are highly qualified and experienced, the Pioneer author lacks even minimal qualifications.
UMass Donahue Institute has been producing academic level reports to aid policy makers for over fifty years. Look at the UMass Donahue MassBenchmarks page listing Editors and you will see an editorial staff who all hold Ph.D.s in Economics or Public Policy. The editorial board is more Ph.D. level researchers, business executives, and past and present members of the Boston branch of the Federal Reserve Bank.
Then there is Secretary Hao. She has a lengthy record of business leadership at the highest levels going back to 1997: board member, CEO, CFO, COO, etc.
So, who managed to outsmart the UMass Donahue Ph.D.’s and the state’s secretary of economic development with a more nuanced look at the data? Meet Pioneer Institute Economic Research Associate Aidan Enright, a 2021 BA graduate of the College of Wooster, majoring in political science with a minor in Economics. He did an internship for a U.S. senator, 11 months with AmeriCorps, and then Pioneer gave him a fancy title.
More than once in the policy brief Enright offers conclusions that border on white replacement theory. Here are some:
The loss of domestic residents in Massachusetts has significant economic consequences. Departing residents tend to be higher-income, well-educated, and often people who are deeply integrated into their communities. The recent influx of humanitarian migrants does not replace the human capital and skill base of departing residents, even as it adds pressure to an already strained housing market and shelter system. . . .
A short-term surge in low-skilled migrants, many lacking legal status or the ability to work in regulated sectors, is no reason for policymakers to think they have solved the out-migration crisis, which has always been about losing wealth to invest here and the talent that makes economic success possible.
In all of this, it’s important to note that not all immigrants are humanitarian migrants, and also that immigrants play a key role in Massachusetts’ economy. As numerous Pioneer Institute reports have made clear, immigrants start businesses, revitalize communities, and fill essential jobs. However, the type of immigrants the state attracts and the continuing loss of domestic residents will shape Massachusetts’ future. Relying solely on humanitarian migration while losing a higher percentage of residents than nearly every other state in the nation is not a sustainable path to success.
Reynolds used the “short-term surge” quote in his story. He also relied on a “poll” commissioned by “Business coalition Mass Opportunity Alliance, which Pioneer is part of…”
Mass Opportunity Alliance (MOA) is a new dark money operation, incorporated after wealthy interests lost the 2022 Fair Share tax ballot question. The Boston Globe reported in September 2024 that MOA had “been quietly raising millions of dollars and drumming up support” and was founded by “Massachusetts High Technology Council, known for its antitax efforts, the libertarian-leaning Pioneer Institute think tank, and the Massachusetts Competitive Partnership, a group of big-name CEOs.”
MOA’s “poll” is junk. The group did not release the survey instrument, did not release the questions or the order of questions, did not even identify the pollster! So trustworthy! But still the Herald and some other media outlets bit on it. Never give a sucker an even break.
MOA claims it commissioned a text message poll (highly doubtful methodology) that purports to show that those hard-working domestic residents Enright and Reynolds are worried about are fleeing the state for New Hampshire and Florida because of the high cost of living which means taxes although the Fair Share tax doesn’t actually fall on them! But it does fall on oligarchs the MOA serves.
Here is a graphic from MOA’s report showing how men are strong, and women are weak.
The bottom line for the Herald, Pioneer and the Massachusetts Opportunity Alliance: dark skinned immigrants are surging in and pushing out well-off white folk who are fleeing the Fair Share tax.
Great replacement theory has become orthodoxy on the right. For instance, Breitbart picked up on the Pioneer report and the Herald in Migrants Come to Massachusetts in Droves While Residents Flee High Taxes, Cost of Living.
Elon Musk promotes great replacement theory:
Great replacement theory is accelerating on the Right. We need to stop it.
“Being aware of conspiracy theories and standing up to hatred, I argue, can help societies deal with the continuing fallout of extreme xenophobia, racist rants, the rise of white supremacy and the victimization of innocent people.” – Prof. Rodney Coates
You start out in 1954 by saying, “N*****, n*****, n*****.” By 1968 you can’t say “n*****”—that hurts you, backfires. So you say stuff like, uh, forced busing, states’ rights, and all that stuff, and you’re getting so abstract. Now, you’re talking about cutting taxes, and all these things you’re talking about are totally economic things and a byproduct of them is, blacks get hurt worse than whites.… “We want to cut this,” is much more abstract than even the busing thing, uh, and a hell of a lot more abstract than “N*****, n*****r.”—The late Republican strategist Lee Atwater.
Full disclosure: as a (now retired) educator in the UMass system, I am a union member. I write about dark money, democracy, and oligarchy. My book, Dark Money and the Politics of School Privatization, is in print.]
Citizens United made the infection of dark money unstoppable.
The Slave Power was once unstoppable. Citizens United must be overturned.